Cutting Through the Noise
January 15, 2014
What a year 2013 was. Everybody’s portfolio was up (or almost everybody), and most were up a lot. It was an unusual year, but not only because of strong returns. For Canadian investors, a barbell shape may best describe the 2013 results. On one ...
Read MoreDecember 13, 2013
A long stock market run goes through many phases. There’s a healthy debate going on right now as to where this one is at – does it have further to go, or is it over? In assessing where we are, it’s useful to look back at how things unfolded over the last four and a ...
Read MoreNovember 11, 2013
What now? Stock markets have been on a roll and investors who’ve been leery about owning stocks are now wading back into the risk pool. With good returns comes confidence. In the face of this better vibe, it’s important that investors don’t stray from...
Read MoreOctober 4, 2013
Let’s pretend it’s two years ago and we’re having coffee. I ask you to predict how your stock portfolio will do over the next two years, but there’s a twist. I have divine insight and can tell you in advance what September, 2013, will look like. As it happens, we're...
Read MoreJune 24, 2013
Over the last couple of weeks, the markets have been in retreat and the headlines have turned decidedly negative (the latter due to the former). Investors are nervous about what is going to happen next. My response? Don’t let the recent mayhem put you off track...
Read MoreMay 13, 2013
"Should I get out of the market?" I'm finding this question is coming up again, prompted either by the Dow hitting all-time highs or the central bankers' perilous high wire act (performed without a net). It depends on the week. But, while we know all...
Read MoreJanuary 19, 2013
A young client phoned this week to ask if she was invested in mutual funds. She’d heard they were high cost and not the place to be. While the call was a little disconcerting given that we only use our own funds to build client portfolios, it was not surprising. Her...
Read MoreJanuary 5, 2013
I’m constantly hearing that it’s been a tough few years for money managers. It’s true that the macro-economic situation has brought uncertainty and volatility, and there’s been no such thing as “safe” income. But in one respect, the past couple of years...
Read MoreDecember 23, 2012
We’re in the midst of the holiday season, but there’s something about reflecting on the financial markets in 2012 that makes me want to say “bah humbug.” To me, the year was lots of talk – Spain, Facebook, BCE, fiscal cliff, Nexen/CNOOC, Mark Carney...
Read MoreDecember 8, 2012
My editors want me to at least occasionally write about something topical. At first glance, a column about getting back into the market doesn't appear to fit the bill, but it does. That’s because now is the time to do the groundwork for what is often the most difficult...
Read MoreNovember 24, 2012
Until a couple of days ago, there was a leaning tower of paper hovering over my desk. It was a stack of articles, charts, cartoons, quotes and sport stats that I was sure would be important one day, but in the meantime, was threatening my safety. It had...
Read MoreNovember 10, 2012
In my last column, I suggested that the stock picker’s lot in life is not as bad as it’s made out to be. I argued that many of the portfolio managers competing in this zero sum game (for every winner, there’s a loser) are destined to underperform for structural reasons...
Read MoreOctober 27, 2012
"Be it resolved that security selection is dead. Macro forces drive portfolio returns.” This was the resolution for the Alternative Investment Management Association’s (AIMA) annual debate. It reflects what I’m increasingly hearing – it’s a tough environment for active...
Read MoreOctober 13, 2012
"It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” – Mark Twain. As investors, we need to be wary of what we’re absolutely, positively sure about. We may be flat out wrong. Economies, markets and...
Read MoreSeptember 29, 2012
Last week in Toronto, I had back-to-back meetings that provided an intriguing juxtaposition. I first met with Joe Sirdevan, the former head of research at Jarislowsky Fraser, who is starting a new firm, Galibier Capital, and then spent some time...
Read MoreSeptember 16, 2012
Big changes are in the regulatory winds and they’re going to be good for Canadians. The new rules that are coming down relating to cost disclosure, performance reporting and client statements are likely to have more impact on individual investors...
Read MoreSeptember 1, 2012
Just as the baby boomers brought us free love and rock ’n’ roll, they’re also leading the way into pension-less retirement. Those who are near or just into retirement are in a tough spot. They have a long time time horizon and need investment returns that are...
Read MoreAugust 18, 2012
After some extended dock time, I’ve been re-engaging in the realities of the capital markets. I put aside my summer reading list and am back on the hard core investment stuff. With the benefit of a fresh set of eyes, three things jumped out at me...
Read MoreAugust 3, 2012
As a young analyst at Richardson Greenshields, I worked with a big guy with an unusual name, Pentti Karkkainen. After years as a highly regarded oil analyst, Pentti now plies his trade in Calgary at KERN Partners, a private equity firm he co-founded. I introduce...
Read MoreJuly 22, 2012
If you really want to delve into someone’s personality and character, take them golfing. There are few pastimes that are more revealing. Golf takes four to five hours to play, is laden with emotion and is mankind’s greatest equalizer - it humbles...
Read MoreJuly 7, 2012
There’s one research report in my reading pile I’ve been avoiding, although it eventually worked its way to the top. Vanguard, the giant U.S. mutual-fund company ($1.8-trillion U.S. under management) produces some great research, particularly in the...
Read MoreJune 23, 2012
A greed moment? So here we are. The economic outlook is bleak. Systematic risk is high. Investors are scared. And Warren Buffett’s words are ringing in my ears, “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others...
Read MoreJune 9, 2012
The market had a good run for a while, but now it’s right back to where it was.” “I haven’t made any money in 10 years.” “Whatever it is, I don’t want any more downside.” “I give up.” These statements reflect the sentiment of investors today. The headlines...
Read MoreMay 26, 2012
‘[T]he market’ is rapidly becoming something of an endangered species. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to try and identify any asset of significance that isn’t experiencing huge and artificial distortion to its price by forces that we might...
Read MoreMay 12, 2012
A long-standing investment strategy is back in vogue. “Covered call writing” is designed to generate income from a stock by selling a call option against it (the right to buy the stock at a set price in the future). While the strategy has been around forever...
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