Investors have no excuse for not preparing for a bear market

Mon, 10 Nov 2025 12:14:34 PST

bear market

There is so much talk about bubbles these days that it’s almost certain not to happen. It may be like the imminent recession of 2023, 2024 and 2025. Right or wrong, there’s one useful thing that comes out of all the speculation. You have no excuse for being unprepared when the bear market arrives.

In that vein, there are things you can do now that will prove invaluable when markets are weak. Indeed, most of the work needs to be done ahead of time.

Preparing doesn’t mean selling everything. That may seem like the obvious solution, but there’s a problem. Timing the market is impossible. The next bear market could start tomorrow or be years away. And even when you get the sale right, you’re faced with an even bigger decision – when to get back in? If you time the first decision poorly and miss a year or two of returns, the second becomes psychologically crippling.

So, what can you do?

Preparation

When not if: The first thing to do is eliminate the word ‘if’ from your vocabulary. Don’t sugar-coat the future by saying “if the market goes down.” This little word limits your ability to mentally prepare. It should be “when my stocks are dropping, when the headlines are ugly, and when it feels like my plan isn’t working.”

In SAM we trust: Rather than sell all your stocks, it’s time to make sure you’re at or near your strategic asset mix (SAM). SAM matches your portfolio to your life circumstances and personality. It’s a best guess at what mix of asset types, industries and geographies will help you reach your goals.

This step seems basic, but after a long run in the stock market characterized by huge disparities in sector returns (gold and technology versus telecom and health care), there’s a good chance your mix has drifted from where you intended. Your bonds, which provide income and crisis protection, are likely below target. Your stocks may be tilted too far toward the U.S. and technology.

A properly diversified portfolio won’t avoid a down market, but is assured of recovering in the years that follow.

Ask hard questions: If a bet on a particular theme or sector doesn’t work out, will it devastate your returns? When your $250,000 portfolio drops to $200,000 (down 20 per cent), will you be able to stick to your SAM? If you can’t confidently say yes, then you have the wrong mix (being fully invested in stocks works brilliantly as long as you have enough time and fortitude to stick with it).

Plan to spend: If you have coming spending needs (travel, kitchen renovation, university tuition), set the money aside in a money-market fund or GIC. This isn’t market timing, just sound financial planning. If the money needs to be there some time in the next three years, it shouldn’t be subject to the vagaries of the stock market.

Similarly, if you’re retired, make sure your spending reserve, the money you set aside to pay yourself, is topped up. You’ll be using it when your portfolio is down and bills need to be paid. We generally suggest maintaining the reserve at two years of spending until it’s called into action.

Automate your routine: Make your process automatic via monthly preauthorized contributions. A PAC is convenient and saves time, but it really helps in bad markets. It takes the emotion out of the process and ensures that you average down.

Implementation

When the ‘when’ comes, most of the work should already be done, but doing the right things when your portfolio is down is hard. Emotions are high and negativity is everywhere. Nothing heroic is required, but it’s still difficult sticking to your process under adverse conditions.

Keep making contributions: This is where the automatic thing comes in.

Rebalance: Use contributions (and withdrawals) to stay close to your SAM. The worst mistake you can make is being fully invested on the way down and partly invested on the way up.

Baby steps: Investing is never about perfection, and pursuing precision during difficult times can be especially debilitating. One way to loosen up is break your moves into smaller steps, none of which will be perfect, but all of which will be rewarding years later. As the saying goes, you make your money in bear markets. You just don’t know it until later.

It’s important to know what you’re going to do in bad times so you can sit back and enjoy the good times.

Portfolio of horrors: Beware these market monsters

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 09:15:20 PDT

Portfolio of horrors: Beware these market monsters

Every October, we decorate our homes with skeletons, don elaborate costumes, and pretend we enjoy being scared. But investors — the poor, thrill-seeking creatures that we are — don’t need haunted houses. The markets provide their own jump scares, complete with flickering charts, eerie acronyms, and the occasional ghost of financial decisions past.

If you listen closely, you can hear the whispers: “Buy the dip… diversify later…”

As an avid horror movie buff and a darkly amused observer of investor behaviour, let me use the excuse of the Halloween season to draw mildly clever analogies that guide you through the haunted corridors of modern investing. 

The Rise of the Quirky Acronyms

The stock market is many things — a pricing mechanism, a global capital allocator, and, occasionally, a stage for some truly bizarre theatre. It doesn’t just produce returns; it produces stories. 

Once upon a time, the powers that be discovered that if you string together a few promising stocks or countries and give them a catchy name, people will believe in them forever. 

In the 1960s, it was the “Nifty Fifty,” a set of blue-chip darlings considered so indestructible you could buy them at any price and allegedly never lose. In the 2000s, there were the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China), randomly packaged together for quick consumption as the world’s next growth engines. More recently, FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) evolved into FAANG, then into MAG7, because apparently seven is the new four.

Acronyms are comforting. They make investing sound like a club, or at least a Scrabble game. But they’re often catchier than they are useful. 

Decoding them can feel like playing Sudoku where someone’s swapped out a few digits: you convince yourself there’s a pattern, even as the puzzle stops making sense. Investors do the same — holding on to old labels long after they’ve stopped adding up. 

  • Horror movie equivalent: The Cabin in the Woods — you think you know the genre, but it’s really just another elaborate setup.

The Meme Stock Séance 

For a brief, caffeinated moment in 2021, the stock market became a grade school sleepover. Everyone stayed up too late, dared each other to buy GameStop, and claimed they could talk to the spirit of Warren Buffett through Reddit.

Valuations rose from the grave, untouched by fundamentals or basic arithmetic. It was democracy meets chaos, with emojis. When it was over, the hangover was brutal. Many learned this ancient investing truth: just because something is trending doesn’t mean it’s immortal.

Fads fade, but strong companies with durable earnings, bought at a reasonable price, tend to serve long-term investors much better.

  • Horror movie equivalent: The Scream series – self-aware, overhyped, and ultimately a cautionary tale about confusing irony with safety. 

The Fog of U.S. Overconcentration 

We all know the classic horror trope where the house that looks perfectly normal is actually sitting on cursed ground. Now I’m not saying that’s the U.S. equity market… but let’s dig in. 

We know we’re supposed to diversify, still it can be hard to resist the warm glow of American exceptionalism. The S&P 500 has become the financial equivalent of a pumpkin spice latte: comforting, everywhere, but not nearly diversified enough (all I’m saying is don’t sleep on the brown sugar oat milk latte).

Consider this:

Meanwhile, the rest of the world’s markets languish in the basement, covered in cobwebs, mumbling, “Remember us?” But overconcentration is a quiet kind of horror. It doesn’t jump out and scream — it just slowly takes over the plot until there’s nowhere left to hide. 

If you want a deep dive on this spooky reality, check out Purpose Associate Portfolio Manager Brett Gustafson’s recent article The Comfort Trap

  • Horror movie equivalent: Get Out – you think you’re in a safe, unremarkable environment, until you realize you should have left 20 minutes ago. 

How to Keep the Monsters at Bay

If you’re retired, or on the way there, your goals are probably simple: protect your capital, generate a steady income, and sleep at night.

But real nightmare fodder can disguise itself. So, what can a sensible investor do?

  1. Don’t chase ghosts. If an investment comes with a catchy name, it’s already been discovered. Ask what’s underneath the white sheet.
  2. Revisit your portfolio’s cast of characters. If U.S. stocks have quietly taken over the starring role, consider adding some global exposure to balance the plot.
  3. Talk to your advisor before you act. Especially if you find yourself thinking, “Everyone’s doing it.” That’s usually when the lights start flickering.

As the pumpkins glow and the markets twitch, remember: the scariest thing in investing isn’t volatility. It’s forgetting that markets, like haunted houses, are designed to make you panic.

Stay calm. Stay diversified. And if you hear whispering in the dark, it’s probably just the ghost of your GameStop investment.

Happy Halloween. 🎃

PS: You didn’t ask but my all-time favourite horror movie and top spooky recommendation is the 2014 horror/comedy Housebound. Check it out. 

Vanessa


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